Tokyo Electron (ADR)
TOELYQ2 2024(TOELY Q4 FY2024)Estimated12% AI
AI Revenue %
12%
AI Fair Value
$3.1B
AI Revenue (Q)
$450.0M
Total Revenue (Q)
$3.8B
Analysis
Q4 FY2024 (Jan-Mar 2024): Tokyo Electron reported ¥547.29B in quarterly revenue (+18.0% QoQ, strong seasonal Q4). Full year FY2024 total was ¥1,830.5B. AI-driven equipment demand was now materially impacting results. TSMC disclosed that AI/HPC exceeded 50% of wafer revenue, with multiple new AI accelerator designs in production (H100, H200, MI300X, TPU v5, custom ASICs). HBM capacity expansions at all three DRAM makers drove strong etch and bonding equipment orders. TEL's full FY2024 HBM etching revenue was 'several tens of billions of yen' (~¥30-50B), implying Q4 was the strongest quarter at perhaps ¥12-15B. TEL later stated FY2025 AI-related equipment would exceed 30% of sales — implying FY2024 was below 30%, likely in the 20-25% range for their broad definition. Applying our stricter Ring 1 filter (excluding AI-enabled PCs/smartphones, which TEL includes): ~50% of TEL's broad AI definition qualifies as Ring 1. Ring 1 estimate: ~¥66B of ¥547.29B = ~12.0%. This reflects the inflection point where AI equipment orders placed in H1 2023 were converting to revenue.
Analyzed by claude-opus-4-6
AI Products Identified (Ring 1)
Etch systems for HBM3/HBM3E DRAM layersCoater/developer for 3nm logic nodes (NVIDIA H200, AMD MI300)Synapse temporary bonder/debonder for HBM die stackingDeposition systems for CoWoS advanced packagingCVD systems for advanced node AI chip productionAerosol cleaning for HBM packaging flows
AI-Enabled Items (Ring 2 — Not Counted)
These items use AI but are not counted in the AI revenue estimate because they primarily serve non-AI functions.
Equipment for AI-enhanced smartphone SoCs (A17 Pro)Equipment for general data center server chipsMature node equipment for AI-adjacent power management ICs
Confidence Tier
EstimatedNo direct AI revenue disclosure — estimated from product mix