Tokyo Electron (ADR)
TOELYQ1 2024(TOELY Q3 FY2024)Estimated10% AI
AI Revenue %
10%
AI Fair Value
$2.6B
AI Revenue (Q)
$375.0M
Total Revenue (Q)
$3.8B
Analysis
Q3 FY2024 (Oct-Dec 2023): Tokyo Electron reported ¥463.66B in quarterly revenue (+8.4% QoQ), continuing the recovery. AI chip demand was at unprecedented levels — NVIDIA reported record Data Center revenue, AMD launched MI300X, and Google's TPU v5 was in production. HBM demand was surging (SK Hynix HBM3E in qualification, all three DRAM makers expanding HBM capacity). TEL's DRAM equipment sales were growing, with HBM-specific tools (etching for TSV, bonding/debonding) seeing strong demand. Management noted at the Q3 earnings call that AI servers were a key growth driver for CY2024 logic/foundry investments, and DRAM investment was expected to grow 30-40% in CY2024. Ring 1 estimate: HBM-related equipment (~¥12B) + incremental advanced logic for AI accelerator production (~¥35B, benefiting from TSMC 4nm/3nm AI chip ramp) = ~¥47B of ¥463.66B = ~10.0%. The AI equipment pipeline was now more fully converting to deliveries.
Analyzed by claude-opus-4-6
AI Products Identified (Ring 1)
Etch systems for HBM DRAM layers (TSV etching)Coater/developer for 3nm/4nm logic nodes (AI accelerators)Synapse temporary bonder/debonder for HBM die stackingDeposition systems for advanced packaging (CoWoS)Aerosol cleaning systems for HBM packaging
AI-Enabled Items (Ring 2 — Not Counted)
These items use AI but are not counted in the AI revenue estimate because they primarily serve non-AI functions.
Equipment for AI-enhanced smartphone SoC manufacturingEquipment for general data center chip upgradesWafer probers for mixed AI/non-AI testing
Confidence Tier
EstimatedNo direct AI revenue disclosure — estimated from product mix