Tokyo Electron (ADR)

Q1 FY2024 (Apr-Jun 2023): Tokyo Electron reported ¥391.75B in quarterly revenue, the trough of a cyclical downturn (FY2024 total ¥1,830.5B, down 17% YoY). AI chip demand was surging post-ChatGPT (Nov 2022) but semiconductor equipment orders lag chip demand by 6-12 months. NVIDIA H100 production was ramping at TSMC but equipment for these fabs was largely ordered and delivered in prior quarters. TEL's HBM-related etching equipment was in early demand — management later noted 'several tens of billions of yen' in HBM etching for full FY2024, suggesting ~¥20-40B for the full year, or roughly ¥5-10B per quarter. Advanced logic equipment for AI accelerator fabs was beginning to see incremental orders but most leading-edge equipment still served smartphone/consumer SoCs. Ring 1 estimate: HBM etching/bonding (~¥7B) + incremental advanced logic for AI fabs (~¥24B, ~6% of revenue from AI-specific capacity expansions at TSMC/Samsung) = ~¥31B of ¥391.75B = ~8.0%. This is conservative given the equipment order lag — the AI demand surge had not yet fully translated to TEL equipment deliveries.