Lumen Technologies, Inc.
LUMNQ1 2025(LUMN Q4 FY2024)Estimated2% AI
AI Revenue %
2%
AI Fair Value
$360.7M
AI Revenue (Q)
$204.7M
Total Revenue (Q)
$10.2B
Source: SEC EDGAR 10-K Filing
View 10-K on SEC.govAnalysis
The FY2024 10-K is the first annual filing where PCF and AI are integral to Lumen's strategy narrative. The 10-K introduces 'Dark Fiber and Conduit' as the first product listed under 'Grow' (previously just 'Dark Fiber'), explicitly adding conduit as a growth driver for the first time — reflecting AI data center demand for conduit infrastructure. The filing also adds 'Optical Services' and 'Communications (VoIP)' to the Grow category. Current deferred revenue on the Q1 2025 balance sheet (reflecting Dec 2024 year-end) was $861M, up from $647M at Dec 2023 — a $214M increase primarily attributable to PCF/custom fiber deal signings. However, the 10-K provides no specific AI revenue breakdown. Total Q4 2024 revenue is derived as: FY2024 total minus 9mo 2024 = approximately $3,230M (estimating FY2024 at ~$13,009M based on quarterly run rate). I estimate approximately $65M in Q4 2024 AI-attributable revenue from PCF, dark fiber, and conduit serving AI data centers. $65M / $3,230M = 2.0%.
Analyzed by claude-opus-4-6
Quoted Figures
Grow, which includes products and services that we anticipate will grow, including: Dark Fiber and Conduit.
10-K FY2024, Item 8 Segment Note (Products & Services)
our ability to successfully and timely monetize our network related assets through leases, commercial service arrangements or similar transactions (including as part of our Private Connectivity Fabric SM solutions), including the possibility that the benefits of these transactions may be less than anticipated
10-K FY2024, Forward-Looking Statements
our ability to successfully adjust to changes in customer demand for our products and services, including increased demand for high-speed data transmission services and artificial intelligence services
10-K FY2024, Forward-Looking Statements
AI Products Identified (Ring 1)
Private Connectivity Fabric (custom AI data center fiber networks)Dark Fiber and Conduit (AI hyperscaler builds)
AI-Enabled Items (Ring 2 — Not Counted)
These items use AI but are not counted in the AI revenue estimate because they primarily serve non-AI functions.
Edge Cloud ServicesOptical ServicesIP services (AI workload traffic)
Confidence Tier
EstimatedNo direct AI revenue disclosure — estimated from product mix