canar.ai
Rankings/AMAT/Q4 2023 Analysis

Applied Materials

AMAT
Q4 2023Estimated7% AI
AI Revenue %
7%
AI Fair Value
$8.2B
AI Revenue (Q)
$449.8M
Total Revenue (Q)
$6.4B
Source: SEC EDGAR 10-K Filing
View 10-K on SEC.gov

Analysis

10-K annual filing. Full year: Semiconductor Systems = $19,698M of $26,517M total. End-use: foundry/logic 77%, DRAM 17%, Flash 6%. First meaningful forward-looking AI commentary: 'In fiscal 2024, we expect advanced foundry and logic demand to be stronger as compared to fiscal 2023 due to increased customer spending in PC, cloud and Artificial Intelligence (AI) data centers.' This suggests AI was beginning to influence demand, but FY2023 was still dominated by mature nodes. DRAM at 17% was pre-HBM boom. Slight increase to 7% reflecting emerging AI equipment demand in the latter part of FY2023. Math: implied Q4 revenue = $26,517M - $19,794M = $6,723M; $6,723M x 7% = ~$471M estimated AI revenue for Q4.
Analyzed by claude-opus-4-6

Quoted Figures

In fiscal 2024, we expect advanced foundry and logic demand to be stronger as compared to fiscal 2023 due to increased customer spending in PC, cloud and Artificial Intelligence (AI) data centers as well as customers continued investments in new technology.
MD&A, 10-K ended Oct 29, 2023
Semiconductor Systems net revenue $19,698M [FY2023]; Foundry, logic and other 77%, DRAM 17%, Flash memory 6%
Segment Note, 10-K ended Oct 29, 2023

AI Products Identified (Ring 1)

Leading-edge deposition equipmentEtch systems for advanced logicAdvanced packaging equipment

AI-Enabled Items (Ring 2 — Not Counted)

These items use AI but are not counted in the AI revenue estimate because they primarily serve non-AI functions.

Mature node foundry equipment (ICAPS)Flash memory equipmentDisplay equipmentApplied Global Services

Confidence Tier

EstimatedNo direct AI revenue disclosure — estimated from product mix