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Rankings/ADPT/Q3 2023 Analysis

Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp

ADPT
Q3 2023(ADPT Q2 FY2023)Estimated12% AI
AI Revenue %
12%
AI Fair Value
$121.6M
AI Revenue (Q)
$5.9M
Total Revenue (Q)
$48.9M
Source: SEC EDGAR 10-K Filing
View 10-K on SEC.gov

Analysis

Revenue of $48.9M. Genentech was 37.7% of Q2 2023 revenue = ~$18.4M, indicating a very large milestone quarter. However, the Q2 2023 10-Q (6-month ended June 30, 2023: revenue $86.6M vs prior year $82.3M) shows revenue growth. The large Genentech share likely reflects the IND clearance milestone announced in 2023 (first FDA-cleared IND for TCR-based cell therapy under Genentech Agreement). This milestone was AI-discovery-enabled but primarily a regulatory achievement. Applying 25% AI attribution to the $18.4M Genentech portion = $4.6M, plus ~$3M from recurring IM = ~$7.6M / $48.9M = 15.5%. Rounding down conservatively to 12% given uncertainty on exact IM composition.
Analyzed by claude-opus-4-6

Quoted Figures

Revenue $48,926K for three months ended June 30, 2023
10-Q filed 2023-08-08, Income Statement
Genentech, Inc. and Roche Group 37.7% [of Q2 2023 revenue]
10-Q filed 2024-08-07, Revenue Concentration table
In 2023, Genentech secured the first FDA-cleared investigational new drug (IND) for a cell therapy product candidate under the Genentech Agreement
10-K FY2024, Item 1 Business

AI Products Identified (Ring 1)

Genentech TCR-based cell therapy collaboration (AI/ML-enabled TCR discovery)Immune Medicine TCR-Antigen Map

AI-Enabled Items (Ring 2 — Not Counted)

These items use AI but are not counted in the AI revenue estimate because they primarily serve non-AI functions.

clonoSEQ diagnostic testMRD Pharma testing servicesAdaptive Immunosequencing sample testing

Confidence Tier

EstimatedNo direct AI revenue disclosure — estimated from product mix